An Addendum

Yesterday, I discussed the dominion of ideas and laid out my argument for hydrogen technology.

Moreover, I denounced alternatives like hybrid technology and ethanol (and, really, all other alternative hydrocarbon-based fuels) because of the fear they may become mainstream technologies. This fear is not unfounded; if these pseudo-green technologies do become locked-in, because they are but a small environmental improvement over conventional gasoline (but not necessarily diesel), there is a good chance the automobile industry will once again become very adverse to change. Competitive markets, like the automotive industry, are hugely conservative and, as industries go, carry a lot of momentum, making it excruciatingly hard for them to adopt new technologies.

The truth of the matter is, despite being better than the current technology, we mustn't allow the green revolution to lock-in an inferior technology, like hybrids or ethanol.

I condemn idealistic thinking, but some would argue I am somewhat an idealist myself. My opinions are open to reason -- it is not like I am calling to boycott hybrid technology or ethanol. I am merely trying to warn the public of the dangers of investing heavily in these technologies strictly because they are simpler and/or easily applicable.

My trust in the power of ideas, too, is not unfounded.

Ethanol has been a key player in the green revolution. But how many ethanol gas stations are there? How many vehicles are there capable of running on 100% ethanol (not just E85)? Clearly, there is no momentum behind this idea. Moreover, if we are going to lock-in a technology, why not one that produces zero greenhouse gas emissions?

Toyota and Honda have been producing hybrid vehicles since 1997 and 1999, respectively. But I'm told they still take a loss on every unit they produce (with the exception of the Prius) because consumers are not willing to pay the large premium hybrid drive costs over a conventional petrol. And in Europe, half the cars are diesel -- which any gasoline-hybrid owner can vouch will get significantly better fuel economy. How can this be the future? The only momentum behind this idea is a direct result of Toyota's brute-force marketing strategies -- the "red flare" I refer to in yesterday's article. The idea on its own carries no strength. And again, why not strive for a technology that produces zero greenhouse gas emissions? Why not a technology that fully relieves our dependency on foreign oil?

Hydrogen technology is an idea that has fully captured the public imagination. Hydrogen fuel cell-powered cars are silent, efficient, and produce zero greenhouse gas emissions. When we develop suitable storage and transportation methods, it will be as convenient as gasoline and as kind to the environment as the Prius only claims to be.

Clearly, I have a great deal of enthusiasm for hydrogen technology. And that zeal is only made stronger by my belief in powerful ideas.